Ukraine
4. Preservation of Regional Peace, Security and Stability
The fourth area considered in the BICC database corresponds to the fourth criterion in the EU Common Position. To rate the degree of violent conflict in the region, it looks in particular at data on armed conflicts published by Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), but also at indicators like the occurrence of a coup d’état or the military interference in the political process as measured by the Fraser Institute’s dataset on Economic Freedom of the World (EFW).
It is important to note here that, while a classification as ‘possibly critical’ could also indicate a state of internal instability, violent conflicts in the region or past violent conflicts, a country is classified as ‘critical’ under this criterion only if it is a party to an ongoing international armed conflict (according to UCDP data). This does include the participation in military interventions as a secondary party to the conflict, but it does exclude military interventions that are legitimised by the United Nations Security Council, for example UN peacekeeping missions.
Indicators
| Number of international armed conflicts (UCDP Armed Conflict Dataset) | 2 |
| Number of non-state conflicts (UCDP Non-State Conflict Dataset) | |
| Number of historic international conflicts (past ten years) (UCDP Armed Conflict Dataset) | 4 |
| Armed conflicts in neighbouring countries (UCDP Armed Conflict Dataset) | No data |
| Political Terror Scale | - |
| Military interference in rule of law and the political process (EFW) | 8.333 |
| Coup d’ Etat (past 20 years) | 1 |
Sources
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UCDP Armed Conflict Dataset
The Armed Conflict Dataset, produced by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, provides a dataset of armed conflicts, both internal and external, in the period 1946 to the present. The Armed Conflict Dataset is a conflict-year dataset with information on armed conflict where at least one party is the government of a state.
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UCDP Non-State Conflict Dataset
The Non-State Conflict Dataset is produced by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. It is a conflict-year dataset containing information on communal and organized armed conflict where none of the parties is the government of a state.
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Political Terror Scale
The Political Terror Scale is compiled by Mark Gibney from the University of North Carolina. It ranks over 180 countries according to their levels of human rights violations:
- Level 5: Terror has expanded to the whole population. The leaders of these societies place no limits on the means or thoroughness with which they pursue personal or ideological goals.
- Level 4: Civil and political rights violations have expanded to large numbers of the population. Murders, disappearances, and torture are a common part of life. In spite of its generality, on this level terror affects those who interest themselves in politics or ideas.
- Level 3: There is extensive political imprisonment, or a recent history of such imprisonment. Execution or other political murders and brutality may be common. Unlimited detention, with or without a trial, for political views is accepted.
- Level 2: There is a limited amount of imprisonment for nonviolent political activity. However, few persons are affected, torture and beatings are exceptional. Political murder is rare.
- Level 1: Countries under a secure rule of law, people are not imprisoned for their views, and torture is rare or exceptional. Political murders are extremely rare.
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Military Interference in Rule of Law and the Political Process (EFW)
The Economic Freedom of the World Annual Report of the of the Fraser Institute has five Components. "Military Interference in Rule of Law and the Political Process" is one sub-component of the second component "Legal Structure and Security of Property Rights".
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Coup d’ Etat
Jonathan Powell and Clayton Thyne of the University of Kentucky present a dataset of coups d’Etat in the world since 1950. The datafile itself offers information including the coup plotter and deaths related to the coup, while the codebook offers brief narratives regarding events that are excluded.